Boom and Bust Cycles (2:58)
Transcript: Boom and Bust Cycles (0:00)
I had the opportunity to visit Dubai some time ago. I found it an interesting paradox. On the one hand, it is located within a vast desert landscape. As my plane approached the airport, there was sand as far as the eye could see. Yet within all of this sand was an oasis of buildings and roads that reminded me of places like New York or Los Angeles.
Once in Dubai, the extravagance and opulence were everywhere, and I saw an incredible mix of nationalities and cultures. I found myself wondering how this place came to be this way. This is typical of many Middle Eastern countries, and in large part we can turn to the oil industry for answers.
In Lesson 5, including the period just before World War II, we learned that large oil deposits were discovered in a place where few expected them to exist: the vast deserts of the Middle East. Suddenly, Kuwait, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia became major players in the oil market.
Times have indeed changed, and today places such as the United Arab Emirates are major participants in the global industry. As we will see in coming lessons, they became so influential that they gained significant control over global markets.
During my time with Mobil, I had the honor of hosting Iraqi oil officials at our offices in Dallas. At the time, Iraq was in conflict with Iran. Looking back on that experience, and considering the conflict that later occurred between the United States and Iraq over Kuwait, I find it interesting how allegiances shift over time.
Friends become adversaries. Adversaries become friends.
In many cases, partnerships and arrangements are created to address one issue while tolerating differences on other issues. It brings to mind familiar sayings such as “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” and “politics makes strange bedfellows.”
The point is that necessity breeds cooperation, even when that cooperation is forced. Oil is notorious for creating these kinds of arrangements. It happens between competing companies, between companies and countries, and between countries themselves.
Continue to watch for these complex and changing allegiances as you read the upcoming lessons.
I cannot let Lesson 5 pass without highlighting the role of oil in World War II.
Many of you have probably studied World War II extensively, from elementary school through college. However, in this lesson—and again in Lesson 6—we view the war from a different perspective.
We are developing an understanding of how important oil was to the conflict. It influenced who entered the war and when. Decisions were often driven by who had access to oil and who did not.
Oil influenced many aspects of the war, including why Japan was driven toward conflict, the differing fates of Britain and Germany, and Hitler’s interest in Russia.
Stay aware of the issues surrounding oil and its role in World War II. It is a cautionary tale that relates to issues we continue to see today, including developments in Eastern Europe and Russia, the ongoing conflict and shifting balance of power in the Middle East, the rise of Iran, and the role China plays in the oil market.
Will oil supply and access lead to regional war?
Again, only time will tell.