Throughout history, our society has seen periodic shifts in how we acquire energy. In some cases, it was done by introducing new technologies such as steam power engines or widely available electricity. In other cases, ironically, it was applying old approaches in more advanced ways such as solar energy heating or windmills. Note that prior to the heyday of the use of electricity, energy necessary to do work was obtained from sources we now consider renewables. These include wind, solar, and hydropower. Even fossil fuels date to the early days of organized society. Cultures used seeping crude oil, peat bogs, and coal to burn for light, heat, and cooking. Windmills dotted the Dutch landscape, and water wheels were common in early America. In the pre-electricity era, wind and hydropower were used more for mechanical purposes such as pumping water or spinning mills. Solar was used mainly for heating and cooking.
Credit: power-plant-industry-chimney by Benita5 from Pixabay is licensed under the Simplified Pixabay License
Electricity generation found a new application for fossil fuels, hydropower, and wind. The ability to generate electricity using some form of energy to spin turbines which generated current transformed the energy landscape. Burning fossil fuels generated steam to turn turbines. Even with the advent of renewable sources, including nuclear, the primary purposes are for generating electricity. Hydropower and wind energy now spin turbines, and solar can either heat water into steam or generate electricity directly via photovoltaics.
We learned from the outlooks that there is information available predicting how this transition will play out. One may think that, with all of the thinking that goes into an outlook, they would be rather accurate and reliable. That is relatively true until there is a “Black Swan Event.” In general, this is an expression for an event that occurs rarely and randomly but has severe consequences. Some definitions go on to say it is also something that, in retrospect, should have been foreseen. The Covid-19 pandemic is such an eventand perhaps even the war in Ukraine.
The 2024 edition of the IEA World Energy Outlook has this highlight statement:
"Escalating conflict in the Middle East and Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine underscore the continued energy security risks that the world faces. Some of the immediate effects of the global energy crisis had started to recede in 2023, but the risk of further disruptions is now very high. The experience of the last few years shows how quickly dependencies can turn into vulnerabilities; a lesson that applies also to clean energy supply chains that have high levels of market concentration. Markets for traditional fuels and for clean technologies are becoming more fragmented: since 2020, almost 200 trade measures affecting clean energy technologies – most of them restrictive – have been introduced around the world, compared with 40 in the preceding five-year period...Fragility in today’s energy markets is a reminder of the abiding importance of energy security."
Coupled with the the transition in the U.S. to a new presidential administration and energy stance, the long-term impacts to the prospects for rapid clean energy transitions remains unclear. It is too soon to say whether today’s crises represent a major setback for efforts to bring about a more secure and sustainable energy system, or a catalyst that accelerates the pace of change. The war in Ukraine and destabilization in the Middle East continue to unfold; many uncertainties remain, and crucial energy policy decisions have yet to be made.