Post-War Petroleum Order and Crises (2:48)
Transcript: Post-War Petroleum Order and Crises (2:48)
The 1960s were as turbulent for the oil industry as they were for music, movies, and culture in general.
In this week's work, we saw a recurrence of themes that we have discussed several times in previous lessons, along with a repetition of the lessons I have been highlighting each week.
The most prominent theme was the risk of dependence on volatile regions.
As we moved from the 1950s into the 1960s, dependence on Middle Eastern oil increased, as did Europe's dependence on Russian oil. We have seen time and again that these regions can be volatile and introduce significant risk.
This should sound familiar because we are currently experiencing a similar increase in geopolitical risk surrounding access to oil and gas.
Just within the past year or so, we have seen production cutbacks by OPEC, which place pressure on global oil supplies. We have also seen conflict between Eastern Europe and Russia related to access to oil and gas, as well as risks involving the pipelines that transport those resources from Russia into Europe.
Also in the news are the growing alignment between Iran and Russia and the increasing influence of China.
All of this is happening as the United States places more restrictions on domestic production.
The experiences of the 1950s and 1960s suggest that this is a recipe for disaster.
We also saw another example of one of my recurring themes: don't put all your eggs in one basket.
The growth of liquefied natural gas and the development of the North Sea oil fields were responses to the realization that becoming too dependent on a single source or region creates risk.
In later chapters, we will see that, in the 2000s, growth in natural gas and new approaches such as fracking also served as ways of spreading and managing that risk.
Perhaps the most interesting concept in this week's lesson is what the author of our textbook calls "hydrocarbon man."
The idea is that, as a civilization, we have become highly dependent on oil. It has permeated nearly every aspect of daily life, politics, and the economy.
For the first time in history, oil surpassed coal as the primary energy source. This did not occur because coal became less abundant, but because oil was easier, and sometimes less expensive, to obtain and was far more versatile in its applications.
A final lesson from this week is that change takes time.
The current goal of replacing fossil fuels with alternatives such as renewable energy sources will take decades, not years, if not longer. Renewables are not yet as versatile as oil, and replacing oil may take even more time.
We need to be practical and realistic about this transition.
In reality, we will probably never be completely free of hydrocarbons.
Remember that fossil fuels have been used for centuries, if not millennia. A transition of this magnitude cannot occur instantly.
In any case, it is interesting to live in an era that can be characterized by a single substance.