The Disproportionate Emissions of Climate Change
The Disproportionate Emissions of Climate Change azs2Prioritize...
After completing this section, you should be able to:
- Understand which countries and regions have historically emitted most of the world's greenhouse gases.
- Define the "Global North" and "Global South" and give some examples of countries in each region.
Read...
OK, so now we’ve locked in some definitions… but what exactly is inequitable with climate change? In the last couple of lessons, we’ve discussed climate change and its possible impacts. I mean, extreme heat, rising sea levels, acidifying oceans, increased flooding… sounds pretty bad for everyone, right? But to understand climate justice, we need to understand climate injustice: who causes climate change and who's hurt by it.
Check out the graph above. This shows global carbon dioxide emissions – our "primo" greenhouse gas -- in 2021, broken down by country and region. Note how the emissions don't seem to be evenly allocated. For example, more than 1 out of every 3 molecules of carbon dioxide emitted to the atmosphere were emitted by China and India (38% between the two!). The United States emits almost 85% of all the carbon dioxide that comes from North America, more than 5 times that of Canada and Mexico combined! It is clear that different countries are emitting at different rates.
We could also get a historical perspective by evaluating how emissions have evolved over time. The graph below is an area chart – time is on the x-axis, and the area "fanning out from the plume" is the relative emission contribution. Emissions have increased globally since 1950 (plume getting wider), which is unsurprising based on what we know. While we just learned China and the United States are the big emitters currently, the United States and Europe were the key emitters until around the 1970s China’s contribution didn’t really start increasing until around 1980 and then exploded during the 2000s. Comparatively, all of Africa and South America (the purple and green curves), two entire continents, have emitted only a tiny fraction of the carbon dioxide!
So, all of the above implies that not every country should be considered “equal” in contributing to carbon dioxide emissions. Is there a way we can actually measure the imbalance? Is there a way we can actually measure this imbalance? In 2020, scientists developed a new approach to identify which countries bear the most significant responsibility for climate change damage (link to study, but not required reading!). Their method started with a simple “rule:” Every nation (and every citizen of every nation) should have an equal right to use the atmosphere. They used a benchmark of 350 parts per million (ppm) of CO2 in the atmosphere—considered a “safe” level based on research using some of those climate scenarios we talked about—and calculated each country’s fair share of the global carbon budget needed to stay under that threshold.
To do this, they compared each country’s actual CO2 emissions to its fair share, looking at two periods: territorial emissions (1850–1969) and consumption-based emissions (1970–2015). Territorial emissions refer to the CO2 released within a country’s borders, while consumption-based emissions account for emissions embedded in goods and services imported and consumed. In other words, if it took a lot of energy to build a TV in China that was shipped to the United States, that was also considered (so countries can't just "outsource" their pollution and say, "not my fault!")
This comprehensive timeline allowed them to track how countries used their emission allocation. “Excess” CO2 means countries have emitted more than equitably. Here’s what they discovered:
- By 2015, the United States alone was responsible for 40% of the excess CO2, while the European Union (EU-28) accounted for 29%.
- The G8 nations (the United States, EU-28, Russia, Japan, and Canada) contributed 85% of the excess.
- 90% was accounted for by countries categorized as Annex I under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (wealthier, industrialized nations).
- The Global North, a term that includes most developed nations, contributed 92% of the excess CO2.
Meanwhile, many countries in the Global South—primarily developing nations—remained within their fair share of emissions. For instance, despite their large populations, India and China had not yet exceeded their limits as of 2015, although China is projected to surpass its fair share soon (and may have by the time you are reading this).
Key Definition
Global North and Global South
The terms "Global North" and "Global South" refer to a way of categorizing countries based on socioeconomic and political factors rather than geography. The Global North includes wealthier, industrialized nations like the U.S., Canada, Europe, Japan, and Australia, while the Global South comprises developing and least-developed countries, including much of Africa, Latin America, and Asia. Countries in the Global South often face challenges such as lower incomes, limited access to education and healthcare, and infrastructure deficits, whereas the Global North is characterized by diversified economies and higher living standards.
This research highlights an important – albeit somewhat uncomfortable -- truth: wealthier countries have historically contributed far more to climate change than previously recognized. By centering the idea of equal atmospheric rights, this method provides a fairer way to assess which nations bear the greatest responsibility for addressing climate damage.
