METEO 3 Lesson 13 Images
Lesson 13: Becoming a Savvy Weather Consumer
When Weather Made History
the beaches of Normandy

Text description of the beaches of Normandy image.
The image is a map focusing on Europe and parts of the surrounding regions, including North Africa and the Middle East. Water bodies like the North Atlantic Ocean, Labrador Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Black Sea, and Caspian Sea are visible. The countries are marked with their names, such as France, United Kingdom, Spain, Germany, Italy, and others up to the eastern part of the continent like Ukraine and Turkey. Major cities such as London, Paris, Rome, Madrid, Berlin, and Istanbul are labeled. There is a red outline highlighting a specific region in France..
North Atlantic Ocean located to the west of the European continent

Text description of North Atlantic Ocean located to the west of the European continent image.
The image is a map focusing on Europe and parts of the surrounding regions, including North Africa and the Middle East. Water bodies like the North Atlantic Ocean, Labrador Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Black Sea, and Caspian Sea are visible. The countries are marked with their names, such as France, United Kingdom, Spain, Germany, Italy, and others up to the eastern part of the continent like Ukraine and Turkey. Major cities such as London, Paris, Rome, Madrid, Berlin, and Istanbul are labeled. There is a red outline highlighting a specific region in France..
Computer Simulations
equation describing temperature advection in one dimension

Text description of the equation describing temperature advection in one dimension image.
The image illustrates a concept in thermodynamics involving temperature gradients and wind speed. On the left, a color gradient bar shows colors from blue to red labeled with temperatures: 50°, 52°, 54°, and 56°. A black arrow labeled "U" points horizontally along the gradient, indicating wind speed. A white point labeled "P" sits on the gradient, pointing to a graph in the upper left. The graph plots temperature against time, showing a downward curve in red. To the right, a mathematical expression is displayed: ∂T/∂t = -U × ∂T/∂x. Text annotations in red and blue provide explanations, with blue text linked to the arrow and labeled "the negative of the wind speed times..." and purple text stating "...the temperature gradient." Red text above states "The change in temperature over some time interval equals..."
Computer Model Errors
map of the upper-air observing sites in North America

Text description of the map of the upper-air observing sites in North America image.
The image is a map of the United States, highlighting state borders and major cities using their airport codes. Each state is outlined in light yellow, while the background is white. Blue text labels indicate the airport codes across the map. Alaska and Hawaii are shown in separate insets to the bottom left of the image. The map includes parts of Canada and Mexico at the top and bottom, depicted with a lighter shade and additional airport codes.
cartoon linking the butterfly effect to weather

Text description of the cartoon linking the butterfly effect to weather image.
The image is a black and white comic strip consisting of four panels. In the first panel, a person with glasses and a patterned shirt is talking to another character about chaos theory, specifically mentioning their reading on the topic. The second panel features the same characters, with the person in glasses explaining the idea that a butterfly flapping its wings could cause a storm elsewhere. The character listening responds with "Hmm." In the third panel, there is a close-up of a butterfly on a leaf with large eyes, which makes a loud "BURRP!" sound. The final panel shows the two characters again, discussing whether they believe the theory, with one expressing doubt. The background features consistent stippling and cross-hatching for texture.
Ensemble Forecasting
“plume” diagram

Text description of the “plume” diagram image.
The image is a line graph showing the Total Accumulated QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) in inches over time for KUNV, based on EMC's GEFS plumes. The Y-axis measures precipitation in inches from 0 to 8. The X-axis tracks time in UTC, starting from 00Z on September 7, 2018, and ending at 12Z on September 15, 2018. Multiple gray lines representing model ensemble members are plotted across the graph, showing different forecast scenarios. A thicker black line indicates the mean of these ensemble forecasts, and a single blue line highlights a particular scenario. Most lines show an upward trend, indicating increasing precipitation over time.
Assessing Forecast Accuracy
same graph, except for minimum temperatures

Text description of the same graph, except for minimum temperatures image.
The image is a line graph illustrating the annual mean absolute errors of minimum temperature forecasts by the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) from 1972 to 2017. The x-axis represents the years from 1972 to 2017, while the y-axis shows the mean absolute error in degrees Fahrenheit, ranging from 2.0 to 8.0. The graph contains five colored lines, each representing a different day of the forecast: red for Day 3, green for Day 4, blue for Day 5, magenta for Day 6, and black for Day 7. Each line generally trends downward over the years, indicating a decrease in error. Significant dips and rises are present throughout the lines, showing variations in accuracy across different years.
18-hour model precipitation forecast from September 13, 2018

Text description of the 18-hour model precipitation forecast from September 13, 2018 image.
The image is a weather map showing the total accumulated quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) in inches over a specified model run. It covers parts of the United States, with state borders outlined. Blue contour lines indicate rivers, and various regions are filled with color gradients ranging from light green to dark purple, representing different precipitation levels. The south-central area exhibits higher precipitation accumulation, evident from darker shades. Lower accumulations are shown in lighter shades, spread sparsely across the rest of the map. A legend at the bottom provides a scale for interpreting the colors and corresponding precipitation amounts.
prefer to use ranges

Text description of the prefer to use ranges image.
The image shows a weather map of Pennsylvania highlighted with additional snowfall predictions. The map is divided into regions shaded in different colors indicating snowfall amounts. The northern part of the state is in brown with a prediction of "Coating - 1". Light blue represents areas expecting 1-3 inches of snow, including cities like Franklin, DuBois, and Wilkes-Barre. A darker blue area, covering cities such as Pittsburgh and State College, predicts 3-7 inches of snow. The darkest blue areas, including Johnstown and Philadelphia, forecast 6-12 inches, with some regions possibly experiencing locally higher amounts. The background is a pattern of falling snowflakes against a gray sky. In the top left corner, the "weather world" logo is visible. Across the top, there is a banner reading, "Additional snowfall through Wednesday night."
forecast for Hurricane Florence (2018)

Text description of the forecast for Hurricane Florence (2018) image.
The image is a map forecast from the National Hurricane Center, showing the projected path of Tropical Storm Florence as of 5 PM AST on Saturday, September 8, 2018. The map covers the eastern United States and the western Atlantic Ocean, with a white cone indicating the potential track area of the storm. This cone narrows as it approaches the southeastern coast of the United States. Each forecast position is marked with a black dot and labeled with date and time, showing expected positions from 5 PM Saturday to 2 PM Thursday. The storm is noted to become a hurricane, marked with an 'H', and then a major hurricane, marked with an 'M', as it progresses. Surrounding the cone are bold black lines indicating potential areas affected by tropical storm-force winds.
Forecasts, Forecasts Everywhere
percentage improvement compared to raw computer model forecasts

Text description and data table for the percentage improvement compared to raw computer model forecasts image.
The image is a bar chart illustrating the percentage improvement of the WPC over NCEP models for the 1-Inch Day 1 QPF Forecast from 1993 to 2017. The vertical axis measures the percentage improvement, ranging from 0 to 70%. The horizontal axis lists years at intervals: 1993, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2009, 2013, and 2017. Two sets of bars are shown for each year, representing WPC-NAM (green) and WPC-GFS (blue). The WPC-NAM bars generally show greater improvement than WPC-GFS, with prominent peaks noted in 1997 and 2013 for WPC-NAM.
| Year | WPC‑NAM (%) | WPC‑GFS (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 1993 | 29 | 47 |
| 1994 | 29 | 42 |
| 1995 | 26 | 41 |
| 1996 | 23 | 59 |
| 1997 | 28 | |
| 1998 | 32 | 19 |
| 1999 | 13 | 8 |
| 2000 | 22 | 21 |
| 2001 | 23 | 24 |
| 2002 | 26 | 22 |
| 2003 | 19 | 18 |
| 2004 | 29 | 23 |
| 2005 | 30 | 19 |
| 2006 | 30 | 23 |
| 2007 | 50 | 22 |
| 2008 | 35 | 29 |
| 2009 | 37 | 32 |
| 2010 | 35 | 32 |
| 2011 | 29 | 27 |
| 2012 | 38 | 32 |
| 2013 | 57 | 29 |
| 2014 | 50 | 34 |
| 2015 | 47 | 32 |
| 2016 | 56 | 44 |
| 2017 | 32 | 28 |
icon showing clouds and rain on Tuesday

Text description of the icon showing clouds and rain on Tuesday image.
The image shows a weather app interface displaying the forecast for State College. The background features vertical streaks, resembling rain. At the top, the time is shown as 1:28 PM on a Verizon network. The main heading displays "State College" with "Rain" beneath it and a large temperature reading of 69°F. Below, hourly forecasts for the current day, Monday, are presented from now through 7 PM, all depicting varying chances of rain and temperatures between 68°F and 70°F. An icon of a cloud with rain drops accompanies the text. The rest of the week’s forecast is listed with respective icons indicating weather conditions: primarily cloudy with some rain for Tuesday, sunny on Wednesday and Thursday, partly cloudy on Friday, rainy on Saturday, cloudy on Sunday, and partly cloudy on Monday. Highs and lows for each day are shown on the right.
photo on campus

Text description of the photo on campus image.
The image is an aerial view of a university-like campus with lush green trees and a few buildings scattered throughout the landscape. In the foreground, there is a large, rectangular brick building with a flat roof extending from the right, partially capturing its rooftop. Surrounding the area are multiple trees of varying sizes and shades of green, which create a natural canopy. In the distance, other buildings are visible, blending with the tree line. Beyond the campus, a range of low-lying mountains provides a scenic backdrop, under a sky filled with fluffy white clouds and patches of blue.
When Forecasts Go Wrong
received more than 30 inches

Text description of the received more than 30 inches image.
The image is a map highlighting the snowfall difference during Blizzard 2016 between Scranton, PA, and Allentown, PA. It shows a geographical view with green land areas, red-bordered counties, and white roads. A yellow line, labeled "48 MILES!", connects Scranton and Allentown. Scranton is marked in the upper left with "1.8 inches" of snow, while Allentown in the lower center marks "31.7 inches." The map features towns and cities, with parts of Pennsylvania and neighboring areas visible. The title "Blizzard 2016 - A Difference of Miles" is at the top, with the creation date in the top-left corner. The bottom features a banner for the National Weather Service in Binghamton, NY, along with web and social media links.
15Z analysis of sea-level pressure and fronts

Text description of the 15Z analysis of sea-level pressure and fronts image.
The image is a surface weather analysis map showing the United States with various meteorological symbols and data. Curving red and blue lines indicate pressure systems, with isobars tightly packed around a central low-pressure system marked "989" over the Midwest. The map is covered with numbers in orange and blue representing temperature and pressure readings. Weather fronts are depicted with blue triangles and red semicircles, indicating cold and warm fronts, respectively. H and L symbols denote high and low-pressure areas. The map is detailed with small arrows and symbols indicating wind directions and fronts across different regions.
parts of Pennsylvania made it well into the 80s, while it was just 48 degrees Fahrenheit in Erie

Text description of the parts of Pennsylvania made it well into the 80s, while it was just 48 degrees Fahrenheit in Erie image.
The image is a weather map showing temperatures across Pennsylvania and parts of neighboring states, labeled with specific cities. The map features a color gradient representing temperature variations, ranging from cooler greens in the north to warmer oranges and reds in the south. It displays a mix of geographic boundaries with major cities labeled in yellow font along with their corresponding temperatures in white numbers. The temperature readings vary from 48°F in Erie to 93°F in Cumberland. A header at the top indicates the information is about temperatures, with a specified date and time of Friday, April 13, 2018, at 5:00 PM EDT. The "weather world" logo is in the top left corner.
rainfall forecast for Hurricane Florence (2018) from the Weather Prediction Center

Text description of the rainfall forecast for Hurricane Florence (2018) from the Weather Prediction Center image.
The image is a map showing the projected rainfall forecast in inches for Hurricane Florence, focusing on the eastern United States. The map is color-coded to represent different levels of rainfall: light green indicates 2 inches, dark green 4 inches, yellow 6 inches, orange 10 inches, red 15 inches, and magenta over 20 inches. The highest rainfall, represented in magenta, is centered over parts of North Carolina and Virginia. Surrounding areas show decreasing rainfall amounts with the distance. The map includes parts of surrounding states such as South Carolina, Georgia, and more northern areas. A color legend on the right provides a reference for the rainfall amounts.
actual rainfall estimates from Florence

Text description of the actual rainfall estimates from Florence image.
The image is a color-coded map displaying observed rainfall over a four-day period, ending at 8 AM on a specified Monday. The map shows different regions in varying colors indicating the amount of rainfall received, with blue representing lower amounts and red representing higher amounts. A circular yellow highlight is around part of the east coast. The color key to the right indicates the scale of rainfall from 0.75 to over 60 inches. Significant cities like Roanoke, Greensboro, Raleigh, Charlotte, Greenville, Florence, Wilmington, Fayetteville, Myrtle Beach, and Morehead City are marked with black dots and labeled in black text. The map is surrounded by a gradient legend indicating rainfall amounts.
taking a more southern path

Text description of the taking a more southern path image.
The image is a map depicting the track of a weather system across the Atlantic Ocean and into the eastern United States. The map background has shades of blue, representing the ocean, and dark green, indicating landmasses. A multi-colored line traces the path, showing different stages of the storm with colors ranging from white, yellow, orange, to red, and green representing intensity. The path begins in the lower right quadrant of the map, moving northwest across the Atlantic before turning north toward the U.S. coast. Several labels with alphanumeric codes like "20180906" and "20180912" mark key points along the track. A legend in the upper left corner categorizes the storm intensities from Tropical Depression to Category 5, with corresponding colors. Longitude and latitude lines are marked on the map. A text bar at the bottom provides additional details about the time frame, from August 31, 2018, to September 17, 2018.
Trusted Weather Sources and Social "Media-rology"
had to remind people to keep an eye out for "fake forecasts"

Text description of the had to remind people to keep an eye out for "fake forecasts" image.
The image is a Twitter post by NWS (National Weather Service), emphasizing the importance of recognizing official NOAA advisories to avoid fake forecasts. At the top, there's a tweet stating the importance of legitimate forecasts with the hashtag #Irma. Below the tweet is an official NOAA advisory map, showing the projected path of Hurricane Irma. The map depicts the western Atlantic Ocean, with parts of North America, the Caribbean, and northern South America visible. A white cone shows the forecasted path of the storm over the next five days, with times labeled from "8 AM Sat" to "8 AM Tue." Current location markers show the storm's position at various intervals. The background of the map includes lines of latitude and longitude. The bottom section provides specific details about Hurricane Irma, including current position, forecast position, potential track area, watches, warnings, and wind extent.
ended up making landfall in southwest Florida

Text description of the ended up making landfall in southwest Florida image.
The image is a map from the National Weather Service - National Hurricane Center showing the projected path and wind swaths of Hurricane Irma. It covers a section of the western Atlantic Ocean, including parts of North America and the Caribbean. The map highlights areas affected by tropical storm and hurricane force winds using color coding: yellow for tropical storm and red for hurricane. The path extends from the eastern Atlantic, curving through the Caribbean, and then northward up the eastern United States towards Georgia and South Carolina. Longitude and latitude lines are marked, providing a grid over the depicted area, and various countries and U.S. states are labeled.
Facebook post from September 13, 2018 by the "New England News Network"

Text description of the Facebook post from September 13, 2018 by the "New England News Network" image.
The image is a Facebook post by New England News Network showing a weather map of the northeastern United States. The map illustrates a forecast of snowfall with varying shades of blue indicating snow accumulation levels. Light blue represents 1 to 3 inches, and a darker blue indicates 3 to 6 inches. Prominent highways, such as I-81 and I-95, are marked along with weather icons showing snowflakes. A caption in the upper left states "SNOWFALL Into Early Sunday." Below the map, AccuWeather is credited. The post's status update reads: "BREAKING NEWS: Possible Light Snow Later This Weekend Could Be The First September Snow Fall In Years." The post has reactions and engagement statistics, showing likes, comments, and shares.