METEO 3 Lesson 13 Images

Lesson 13: Becoming a Savvy Weather Consumer

 

When Weather Made History

the beaches of Normandy

Map of Europe highlighting a region in France with a red outline..
the beaches of Normandy
Text description of the beaches of Normandy image.

The image is a map focusing on the beaches of Normandy in the North of France, bordering the English Channel. It uses a red outline to highlight the area. The map employs a Mercator Projection featuring Europe and parts of the surrounding regions, including North Africa and the Middle East. Water bodies like the North Atlantic Ocean, Labrador Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Black Sea, and Caspian Sea are visible. The countries are marked with their names, such as France, United Kingdom, Spain, Germany, Italy, and others up to the eastern part of the continent like Ukraine and Turkey. Major cities such as London, Paris, Rome, Madrid, Berlin, and Istanbul are labeled.

Credit: Google Maps

North Atlantic Ocean located to the west of the European continent

Map of Europe highlighting a region in France with a red outline..
North Atlantic Ocean located to the west of the European continent
Text description of North Atlantic Ocean located to the west of the European continent image.

This is the same image as The Beaches of Normandy Image. In this case, it is highlighting Europe's close proximity to the North Atlantic Ocean. This large body of water is roughly west of the continent of Europe playing a large role in Europe's climate. The map employs a Mercator Projection featuring Europe and parts of the surrounding regions, including North Africa and the Middle East. Water bodies like the North Atlantic Ocean, Labrador Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Black Sea, and Caspian Sea are visible. The countries are marked with their names, such as France, United Kingdom, Spain, Germany, Italy, and others up to the eastern part of the continent like Ukraine and Turkey. Major cities such as London, Paris, Rome, Madrid, Berlin, and Istanbul are labeled.

Credit: Google Maps

 

Computer Simulations

equation describing temperature advection in one dimension

Illustration of temperature gradient and wind speed with associated graph and equation.
equation describing temperature advection in one dimension
Text description of the equation describing temperature advection in one dimension image.

The image illustrates a concept in thermodynamics involving temperature gradients and wind speed. On the left, a color gradient bar shows colors from purple to red, in rainbow order, labeled with temperatures: 50°, 52°, 54°, 56°, and 58°, coinciding with the colors. The color colors like purple and blue have the lower temperatures, temperatures increase heading toward red. A black arrow labeled "U" points horizontally along the gradient, indicating wind speed, moving toward the warmer colors. A white point labeled "P" sits on the gradient, pointing to a graph in the upper left of the image. The graph plots temperature against time, showing a downward curve in red, showing a decrease in temperature over time. To the right, a mathematical expression is displayed: Tt = -U × Tx. Text annotations in red, blue, and purple provide explanations, with blue text linked to the arrow and labeled "the negative of the wind speed times..." , pointing at the -U in the equation. The purple text stating "...the temperature gradient.", pointing to the Tx in the equation. And the red text stating "The change in temperature over some time interval equals...", pointing to the Tt in the equation.

Credit: CREDIT_HERE

 

Computer Model Errors

map of the upper-air observing sites in North America

Map of the United States featuring state borders and airport codes for major cities.
map of the upper-air observing sites in North America
Text description of the map of the upper-air observing sites in North America image.
The image is a map of the United States showing state borders and upper‑air observing sites labeled with blue airport codes. Each state is filled with light yellow and outlined in gray, while oceans are shown in blue. Alaska and Hawaii appear in inset boxes in the lower‑left corner. Parts of Canada and Mexico are also visible along the map’s edges in lighter shading, with their own airport codes included.
Credit: CREDIT_HERE

cartoon linking the butterfly effect to weather

A four-panel comic strip about chaos theory and a burping butterfly.
cartoon linking the butterfly effect to weather
Text description of the cartoon linking the butterfly effect to weather image.

The image is a black and white comic strip consisting of four panels. In the first panel, a person with glasses is talking to another character with a patterned shirt about chaos theory, specifically mentioning their reading on the topic. The character in the patterned shirt states "I've been reading about the chaos theory", the character with glasses replies "yeah?". The second panel features the same characters, with the person in the patterned shirt explaining the idea that a butterfly flapping its wings could cause a storm elsewhere, he states "It claims that a single butterfly merely flapping its wings could cause a storm on the other side of the world.". The character listening responds with "Hmm." In the third panel, there is a close-up of a butterfly on a leaf with large eyes, which makes a loud "BURRP!" sound. The final panel shows the two characters again, walking in heavy rain, discussing whether they believe the theory, the one with glasses stating, "Do you believe it?" and the patterned shirt replying, "seems unlikely". 

Credit: CREDIT_HERE

 

Ensemble Forecasting

short video (3:44) explaining the basics of ensemble forecasting

short video explaining the basics of ensemble forecasting (3:44)
Transcript of the short video explaining the basics of ensemble forecasting 
There's really only one food we talk about regularly on Weather World, and that's spaghetti, at least once a week on Fridays in our 12 day trends segment. Today, I'd like to talk about that spaghetti, formerly known as ensemble forecasting, where the word ensemble has its traditional meaning, group or set.
 
The basic premise of ensemble forecasting is that numerical weather prediction, using computers to forecast the weather, is inevitably uncertain for two main reasons. First, weather observations are neither perfect nor complete. So the initial conditions, the values we give a model at the start to describe the atmosphere's current state, will always have some error. Second, atmospheric processes and their interactions with the ocean, land, and ice are so complex that they can't be replicated exactly in a computer model. So any model is an approximation, and every single forecast is, to some extent, uncertain. Think of ensemble forecasting this way. Say this point represents the initial state of our model. We run the model, and at some future time, we get a forecast. We'll mark that with an X. This first run of a model is often called the control run. 
 
Now, we know the initial condition isn't perfect. We also know the model isn't perfect either. So we change the initial condition by a very small amount, or we change the model by a very small amount, and we run it again. Then we tweak a second time and run it again. We tweak it a third time, run it again, a fourth time, run it again. You get the idea, and then repeat a bunch of other times, producing a group or ensemble of forecasts. If they all end up close to the original forecast, that gives us confidence that the forecast isn't sensitive to the imperfections in the initial conditions or the model. But more often than not, the forecasts will be spread out, giving us a sense of the range of solutions and a measure of the uncertainty. 
 
Now, let me introduce you to four ensemble forecasting systems. The short range ensemble forecasting system known as the SREF has 26 members or strands of spaghetti that come from two very similar models that are each tweaked 12 times. This ensemble runs four times a day out to 87 hours in the future. The other American ensemble system is the GEFS with 21 members, the control run, and 20 others with slightly different initial conditions. This is run four times per day, all the way out to 16 days. The spaghetti and 12 day trends is from the global ensemble forecast system. Environment Canada also has an ensemble prediction system with 21 members, the control run, and then they get their spaghetti by tweaking both the initial conditions and the physics of the model. And finally, the European Center's ensemble System has 51 members all created by making slight changes to the initial conditions. It's run twice a day out to 15 days. 
 
We always do the math for you here on Weather World. That's 119 pieces of spaghetti, with 93 of those representing forecasts to at least 15 days. And there are other ensemble forecasting systems. Hopefully in a future weatherwise, I'll talk about them and some of the specifics about how the spaghetti is actually made. Stay tuned. Our extended forecast is next.

“plume” diagram

Line graph showing accumulated QPF forecasts for KUNV with multiple gray lines, a black mean line, and a highlighted blue line from September 7 to 15, 2018.
“plume” diagram
Text description of the “plume” diagram image.

The image is a line graph showing the Total Accumulated QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) in inches over time for KUNV, based on EMC's GEFS plumes. The Y-axis measures precipitation in inches from 0 to 8. The X-axis tracks time in UTC, starting from 00Z on September 7, 2018, and ending at 12Z on September 15, 2018. Multiple gray lines representing model ensemble members are plotted across the graph, showing different forecast scenarios. A thicker black line indicates the mean of these ensemble forecasts, and a single blue line highlights a particular scenario. Most lines show an upward trend, indicating increasing precipitation over time.

Credit: CREDIT_HERE

 

Assessing Forecast Accuracy

same graph, except for minimum temperatures

Graph of annual WPC mean absolute errors for minimum temperatures from 1972 to 2017, showing decreasing trends.
same graph, except for minimum temperatures
Text description of the same graph, except for minimum temperatures image.

The figure shows the annual mean absolute errors of minimum temperature forecasts produced by the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) from 1972 to 2017. The x-axis represents year, and the y-axis shows the mean absolute error in degrees Fahrenheit, ranging from 2.0 to 8.0. Five lines are plotted, each corresponding to a different forecast lead time: Day 3 (red), Day 4 (green), Day 5 (blue), Day 6 (magenta), and Day 7 (black). All forecast days exhibit a general downward trend over time, indicating substantial improvements in forecast accuracy. Short-term fluctuations reflect year-to-year variability in forecast skill. The Day 6 and Day 7 forecasts begin in 1998, when advances in forecasting technology made longer-range predictions possible.

Credit: CREDIT_HERE

18-hour model precipitation forecast from September 13, 2018

Weather map showing accumulated precipitation with color gradients indicating different intensity levels.
18-hour model precipitation forecast from September 13, 2018
Text description of the 18-hour model precipitation forecast from September 13, 2018 image.

The image shows a weather map of total accumulated quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), in inches, from a single model run. The map covers portions of the northeastern United States, including northeastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, New York, and parts of New England, with state boundaries outlined. Blue contour lines indicate major highways. Precipitation amounts are depicted using a color gradient ranging from light green to dark purple, with higher accumulations shown by darker shades. Central and northeastern Pennsylvania exhibit the highest precipitation totals, while lighter accumulations appear across parts of New Jersey. Areas shown in white indicate no forecast precipitation. A legend at the bottom of the map provides the precipitation scale, ranging from zero (white) to 18 inches (brown), with colors transitioning from white through greens, blues, purples, reds, yellows, and brown.

Credit: CREDIT_HERE

prefer to use ranges

Map of Pennsylvania showing additional snowfall predictions with varying amounts across regions.
prefer to use ranges
Text description of the prefer to use ranges image.

The image shows a weather map of Pennsylvania highlighted with additional snowfall predictions. The map is divided into regions shaded in different colors indicating snowfall amounts. The northern part of the state is in green with a prediction of "Coating - 1". Light blue represents areas expecting 1-3 inches of snow, including cities like Franklin, DuBois, State College, and Hazleton. A darker blue area, covering cities such as Pittsburgh and Allentown predicts 3-7 inches of snow. The darkest blue areas, including Johnstown and Philadelphia, forecast 6-12 inches, with some regions possibly experiencing locally higher amounts. The background is a pattern of falling snowflakes against a gray sky. In the top left corner, the "weather world" logo is visible. Across the top, there is a banner reading, "Additional snowfall through Wednesday night."

Credit: CREDIT_HERE

forecast for Hurricane Florence (2018)

Map showing the projected path of Tropical Storm Florence in the Atlantic, with potential positions marked from Saturday to Thursday.
forecast for Hurricane Florence (2018)
Text description of the forecast for Hurricane Florence (2018) image.

The image is a forecast map from the National Hurricane Center showing the projected track of Tropical Storm Florence as of 5 PM AST on Saturday, September 8, 2018. The map covers the western Atlantic Ocean and the eastern United States, with a white cone depicting the potential track of the storm, which widens as forecast uncertainty increases toward the southeastern U.S. coast. Forecast positions are marked by black dots labeled with the corresponding dates and times, ranging from 5 PM Saturday to 2 PM Thursday. Along the projected path, Florence is forecast to intensify from a tropical storm to a hurricane, indicated by an “H,” and then to a major hurricane, indicated by an “M.” At the time of the forecast, Florence is a tropical storm, shown by a yellow area representing the current tropical-storm-force wind extent, and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane within the next several hours.

Credit: CREDIT_HERE

 

Forecasts, Forecasts Everywhere

percentage improvement compared to raw computer model forecasts

Bar chart of WPC improvement over NCEP models for 1-Inch Day 1 QPF from 1993 to 2017.
percentage improvement compared to raw computer model forecasts
Text description and data table for the percentage improvement compared to raw computer model forecasts image.

The image is a bar chart illustrating the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) percentage improvement over NCEP models for the 1-inch Day 1 quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from 1993 to 2017. The vertical axis measures percentage improvement, ranging from 0 to 70 percent, while the horizontal axis lists selected years from 1993 through 2017. Two sets of bars are shown for each year, representing WPC-NAM (green) and WPC-GFS (blue). The WPC-NAM bars generally show greater improvement than WPC-GFS, with a prominent peak in 1996 by GFS. The exact values of the bar chart are shown in the table below. 

Estimated WPC % Improvement to NCEP models — 1-Inch Day 1 QPF Forecast (1993–2017)
YearWPC‑NAM (%)WPC‑GFS (%)
19932947
19942942
19952641
19962359
199728 
19983219
1999138
20002221
20012324
20022622
20031918
20042923
20053019
20063023
20075022
20083529
20093732
20103532
20112927
20123832
20135729
20145034
20154732
20165644
20173228
Credit: CREDIT_HERE

icon showing clouds and rain on Tuesday

Weather forecast for State College showing rain and 69°F, with detailed predictions through the week.
icon showing clouds and rain on Tuesday
Text description of the icon showing clouds and rain on Tuesday image.

The image shows the Apple Weather app interface displaying the forecast for State College. The background features vertical streaks resembling rainfall. At the top of the screen, the time is shown as 1:28 PM on a Verizon network. The main heading lists “State College,” with “Rain” beneath it and a large temperature reading of 69°F. Below this, the hourly forecast for Monday is displayed from the current time through 7 PM, showing varying chances of rain and thunderstorms with temperatures ranging from 68°F to 70°F, accompanied by cloud-and-rain icons, some with lightning bolts. The extended forecast for the rest of the week appears below, with icons indicating mostly cloudy conditions with rain on Tuesday, partly cloudy weather on Wednesday and Friday, sunny conditions on Thursday, partly cloudy weather on Saturday, and rainy conditions on Sunday and the following Monday. Daily high and low temperatures are listed on the right, and Tuesday is highlighted with a yellow box, indicating it is the selected day.

Credit: CREDIT_HERE

photo on campus

Aerial view of a tree-filled campus with buildings and mountains in the background under a partly cloudy sky.
photo on campus
Text description of the photo on campus image.

The image is an aerial view of the Penn State University Park campus, showcasing lush green trees interspersed with several campus buildings. In the foreground, a large rectangular brick building with a flat roof extends from the right, partially visible from above. Surrounding the area, trees of varying sizes and shades of green form a natural canopy. In the distance, additional campus buildings, including Old Main, are visible, blending with the tree line. Beyond the campus, low-lying mountains, including Mount Nittany, provide a scenic backdrop under a sky dotted with fluffy white clouds and patches of blue.

Credit: CREDIT_HERE

 

When Forecasts Go Wrong

received more than 30 inches

Map showing snowfall differences during Blizzard 2016 between Scranton and Allentown, PA.
received more than 30 inches
Text description of the received more than 30 inches image.

The image is a map highlighting the snowfall difference during Blizzard 2016 between Scranton, PA, and Allentown, PA. It shows a geographical view with green land areas, black-bordered counties, white-bordered states and red roads. A yellow line, labeled "48 MILES!", connects Scranton and Allentown. Scranton is marked in the upper left with "1.8 inches" of snow, while Allentown in the lower center marks "31.7 inches." The map features towns and cities, with parts of Pennsylvania and neighboring areas visible. The title "Blizzard 2016 - A Difference of Miles" is at the top, with the creation date in the top-left corner. The bottom features a banner for the National Weather Service in Binghamton, NY, along with web and social media links.

Credit: CREDIT_HERE

15Z analysis of sea-level pressure and fronts

Surface weather analysis map of the United States with pressure systems, temperature data, and weather fronts.
15Z analysis of sea-level pressure and fronts
Text description of the 15Z analysis of sea-level pressure and fronts image.
The image is a surface weather analysis map of the lower 48 United States, displaying various meteorological symbols and data. Curving dark red lines represent isobars, which are tightly packed around a central low-pressure system marked “989” located over the Midwest, specifically in northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska. The map includes numerous numbers: orange indicates pressure, red represents temperature, green shows dew point, and dark red denotes the pressure values of each isobar. The station models also feature blue circles indicating cloud cover and wind vanes showing wind direction. Weather fronts are illustrated with blue triangles for cold fronts and red semicircles for warm fronts. “H” and “L” symbols identify areas of high and low pressure.
Credit: CREDIT_HERE

parts of Pennsylvania made it well into the 80s, while it was just 48 degrees Fahrenheit in Erie

Weather map showing temperatures on April 13, 2018, across Pennsylvania, ranging from 48°F to 93°F.
parts of Pennsylvania made it well into the 80s, while it was just 48 degrees Fahrenheit in Erie
Text description of the parts of Pennsylvania made it well into the 80s, while it was just 48 degrees Fahrenheit in Erie image.

The image is a weather map showing temperatures across Pennsylvania and parts of neighboring states, labeled with specific cities. The map features a color gradient representing temperature variations, ranging from cooler greens in the north to warmer oranges in the south. It displays a mix of geographic boundaries with major cities labeled in yellow font along with their corresponding temperatures in white numbers. The temperature readings vary from 48°F in Erie to 93°F in Cumberland, Maryland. A header at the top indicates the information is about temperatures, with a specified date and time of Friday, April 13, 2018, at 5:00 PM EDT. The "weather world" logo is in the top left corner.

Credit: CREDIT_HERE

rainfall forecast for Hurricane Florence (2018) from the Weather Prediction Center

Map showing projected rainfall for Hurricane Florence with varying colors indicating rainfall amounts.
rainfall forecast for Hurricane Florence (2018) from the Weather Prediction Center
Text description of the rainfall forecast for Hurricane Florence (2018) from the Weather Prediction Center image.

The image is a map showing the projected rainfall forecast, in inches, for Hurricane Florence, focusing on the eastern United States. It is color‑coded to represent different rainfall amounts: light green indicates 2 inches, dark green 4 inches, yellow 6 inches, orange 10 inches, red 15 inches, magenta 20 inches, and purple represents totals exceeding 20 inches. The highest rainfall, shown in purple, is centered over central coastal North Carolina, with surrounding magenta areas extending into parts of Virginia. Rainfall totals decrease outward from this bullseye.

The map also includes portions of nearby states such as South Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and New York. A color legend on the right provides a reference for the rainfall values. This is a 1–7 Day Rainfall Forecast, projecting 168 hours out, and is valid for September 18, 2018, at 8 AM EDT.

Credit: CREDIT_HERE

actual rainfall estimates from Florence

Map showing four-day observed rainfall with varying colors for different rainfall amounts, including a yellow circle highlight on the east coast.
actual rainfall estimates from Florence
Text description of the actual rainfall estimates from Florence image.

The image is a color‑coded map showing observed rainfall over a four‑day period, ending at 8 AM on Monday, September 17, 2018. Different colors represent varying rainfall amounts, with greens and blues indicating lower totals and reds, yellows, and pinks indicating higher totals. A circular yellow highlight is drawn around the Chesapeake Bay area. A color key on the right shows the rainfall scale ranging from 0 to over 60 inches.

Significant cities—including Roanoke, Greensboro, Raleigh, Charlotte, Greenville, Florence, Wilmington, Fayetteville, Myrtle Beach, and Morehead City—are marked with black dots and labeled in black text. State boundaries are outlined in black, while county lines appear in light gray. There is also a red star marking a location in Bladen County, North Carolina.

Credit: CREDIT_HERE

taking a more southern path

A map showing a multi-colored storm track from the Atlantic Ocean to the eastern U.S., with labels marking key points.
taking a more southern path
Text description of the taking a more southern path image.

The image is a map showing the track of Hurricane Florence across the Atlantic Ocean and into the eastern United States. The background uses shades of blue to represent the ocean and dark green and tan tones to depict landmasses. A multicolored line traces Florence’s path, with each color indicating the storm’s intensity at different stages: white for a tropical storm, salmon for Category 1, yellow for Category 2, orange for Category 3, red for Category 4, black for Category 5, and green for a tropical depression.

The storm’s track begins in the lower‑right quadrant of the map near 19°N and 30°W, then moves northwest across the Atlantic toward the U.S. coastline. After landfall, the track curves north as the system weakens to a tropical depression over North Carolina. Several labels with alphanumeric codes, such as “20180906” and “20180912,” appear along the path, representing dates in YYYYMMDD format.

In the upper‑left corner, a legend displays the storm intensity categories from Tropical Depression through Category 5, along with their corresponding colors. White latitude and longitude lines are marked across the map. At the bottom, a text bar provides the time span shown from August 31, 2018, at 12z to September 17, 2018, at 12z.

Credit: CREDIT_HERE

 

Trusted Weather Sources and Social "Media-rology"

had to remind people to keep an eye out for "fake forecasts"

Tweet by NWS with an official NOAA map showing Hurricane Irma’s projected path and storm details.
had to remind people to keep an eye out for "fake forecasts"
Text description of the had to remind people to keep an eye out for "fake forecasts" image.

The image is a Twitter post by the National Weather Service (NWS) emphasizing the importance of recognizing official NOAA advisories to avoid fake forecasts. At the top is a tweet that reads: “Keep your eyes out for fake forecasts. THIS is what an official NOAA advisory looks like. Note: forecast only goes out 5 days. #IRMA”, highlighting the need to rely on legitimate information.

Below the tweet is an official NOAA advisory map showing the projected path of Hurricane Irma. The map depicts the western Atlantic Ocean, including parts of North America, the Caribbean, and northern South America. A white cone illustrates the storm’s forecast path over the next five days, with “M” symbols indicating major hurricane status and “H” symbols indicating hurricane status. Times along the track range from “8 AM Sat” through “8 AM Tue.” The storm’s current position is marked by an “X,” surrounded by a tropical‑storm‑wind‑extent polygon.

Latitude and longitude lines form the map’s background. At the bottom, the advisory provides detailed information about Hurricane Irma, including current and forecast positions, the potential track area, watches and warnings, and wind‑extent data.

Credit: CREDIT_HERE

ended up making landfall in southwest Florida

Map showing the projected path and wind swaths of Hurricane Irma in the Atlantic region.
ended up making landfall in southwest Florida
Text description of the ended up making landfall in southwest Florida image.

The image is a map from the National Weather Service’s National Hurricane Center showing the projected path and wind swaths of Hurricane Irma. It displays part of the western Atlantic Ocean in blue, along with portions of North America, the Caribbean, and South America in gray. Color‑coded shading highlights areas affected by tropical‑storm‑force and hurricane‑force winds: yellow represents tropical storm conditions, and red represents hurricane conditions.

The storm’s path extends from the eastern Atlantic, curves through the Caribbean, and then turns northward along the eastern United States toward Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Gray latitude and longitude lines form a grid over the map, and various countries and U.S. states are labeled for reference.

Credit: CREDIT_HERE

Facebook post from September 13, 2018 by the "New England News Network"

A map showing a snow forecast for New England with areas in blue indicating snowfall amounts.
Facebook post from September 13, 2018 by the "New England News Network"
Text description of the Facebook post from September 13, 2018 by the "New England News Network" image.

The image is a Facebook post by the New England News Network featuring a weather map of the northeastern United States. The map shows a snowfall forecast using varying shades of blue to indicate expected accumulation: light blue represents 1 to 3 inches, and darker blue represents 3 to 6 inches, as shown in the key in the bottom‑right corner. Major highways, including I‑81 and I‑95, are marked across the map. In the upper‑left corner, a caption reads “SNOWFALL Into Early Sunday.” accompanied by a snowy cloud icon. AccuWeather is credited below the map.

The post’s status update states: “BREAKING NEWS: Possible Light Snow Later This Weekend Could Be The First September Snow Fall In Years.” The Facebook post also shows engagement metrics, including likes, comments, and shares

Credit: CREDIT_HERE