Factors that may influence the future of petroleum refining

Figure 11.7 lists four factors that may influence the future of petroleum refining, including product demand, crude supply, environmental regulations, and new technology development. It is expected that in the near future, the demand for distillate fuels will keep increasing, while the conventional crude oil slate will become heavier and more contaminated. This conflict between the trends in supply and demand that is aggravated by stricter environmental regulations on the purity of fuels can be mitigated by new and more effective technologies (processes and catalysts). Although the conventional crude oils are becoming heavier (Figure 11.8), non-conventional liquids such as synthetic crude oil from oil sands in Canada and shale gas liquid by-products are lighter than the conventional crude oils and could be used as blend components to dilute the heavy crudes. Natural gas liquids and coal-derived liquids may also be used as alternative feedstocks for refining. The diversity in crude oil supply calls out the need to plan/operate a more flexible and versatile refinery.

Figure 11.7. Some predictions on future trends in petroleum refining.

Click here for a text alternative to Figure 11.7 above

Future Trends in Petroleum Refining

Forces and Factors

-Demand for products

Product slate: gasoline/diesel

Overall energy demand structure

-Feedstock supply

Geopolitics & degrading quality of conv. Crude oil

Alternative feeds: shale gas liquids, oil sand, natural gas, coal

-Environmental Regulations

More strict regulations on: petroleum fuels & refinery operations

-Technology Development

New refining technologies: processes & catalysts

Other technology: fuel cell

Need for more flexible and versatile Refinery!

 

Figure 11.8. Gravity and sulfur contents of the U.S. crudes [1].