Future Trends in Petroleum Refining
Future Trends in Petroleum Refining szw5009Speculation about the future of refining is risky at best, but some trends are described as to be more certain by Self, Ekholm, and Bowers [5], as follows:
- Computers will increasingly be used for research, design, control and operation, maintenance, information handling, supply chain management, marketing execution, and distribution. As a result, research will broaden and manufacturing facilities will become more complex.
- The sophistication of competitors and customers, both domestic and international, will drive more transparent and efficient markets.
- Consumers will continue to search for energy sources that are reliable and independent of political forces, sustainable, environmentally acceptable, simple to generate and store and distribute, and inexpensive. Consequently, companies will hasten to reconcile the position of fossil fuels within emerging energy alternatives. Meanwhile, fuel formulations and usage will evolve, particularly for better performance and pollution prevention. This will progress despite the apparent trend of heavier crudes with increased sulfur, metals, solids, and water.
- Sensitivity will spread for the concerns and desires of consumers, communities, investors, and other stakeholders in all aspects of refining. Interaction with all stakeholders will be critical.
- Strategic consolidation of the size, number, and ownership of facilities and companies will continue. New partnerships will form among customers, competitors, and suppliers. Companies will attempt to maximize their return on assets, optimize allocation of capital, and reduce operating costs. In particular, efforts at hazard elimination and pollution prevention will intensify to reduce operational and liability costs.
Factors that may influence the future of petroleum refining
Factors that may influence the future of petroleum refining azs2Figure 11.7 lists four factors that may influence the future of petroleum refining, including product demand, crude supply, environmental regulations, and new technology development. It is expected that in the near future, the demand for distillate fuels will keep increasing, while the conventional crude oil slate will become heavier and more contaminated. This conflict between the trends in supply and demand that is aggravated by stricter environmental regulations on the purity of fuels can be mitigated by new and more effective technologies (processes and catalysts). Although the conventional crude oils are becoming heavier (Figure 11.8), non-conventional liquids such as synthetic crude oil from oil sands in Canada and shale gas liquid by-products are lighter than the conventional crude oils and could be used as blend components to dilute the heavy crudes. Natural gas liquids and coal-derived liquids may also be used as alternative feedstocks for refining. The diversity in crude oil supply calls out the need to plan/operate a more flexible and versatile refinery.
Figure 11.7. Some predictions on future trends in petroleum refining.
Future Trends in Petroleum Refining
Forces and Factors
-Demand for products
Product slate: gasoline/diesel
Overall energy demand structure
-Feedstock supply
Geopolitics & degrading quality of conv. Crude oil
Alternative feeds: shale gas liquids, oil sand, natural gas, coal
-Environmental Regulations
More strict regulations on: petroleum fuels & refinery operations
-Technology Development
New refining technologies: processes & catalysts
Other technology: fuel cell
Need for more flexible and versatile Refinery!
[1.] F. Self, E. Ekholm, and K. Bowers, Refining Overview - Petroleum, Processes and Products, AIChE, 2000, Chapter 1.
Considerations for the Future Refinery
Considerations for the Future Refinery azs2Figure 11.9 recaps some considerations for the future refinery, as discussed above, and lists the future challenges that include the need to process heavier and more contaminated crude oils to produce cleaner products than before. Production of diesel from highly aromatic by-product from FCC (LCO) remains a concern for the cost and quality of diesel fuel produced in the U.S. refineries. Also, extensive hydrotreatment to comply with the limits on heteroatom levels in fuels would negatively affect the octane numbers of gasoline because during hydrotreatment, olefins and aromatic compounds may be hydrogenated, thus reducing the octane number. No such conflict exists for diesel fuel, because cetane number of diesel actually increases with hydrogenation. It is clear that the hydrogen demand for the future refinery will keep increasing, and refineries will build or expand the existing hydrogen production capacity.
Figure 11.9. Considerations for future refineries.
Future Refinery
-Increasingly heavier and more sour crude supply
-Demand for cleaner and higher-performance transportation fuels
-Challenges for future refineries
Heavy residue conversion
Reduction of heteroatoms and aromatics in fuels
Diesel problem in the US
Attainment of the required performance characteristics
Octane number (Conflict!)
Centane number
-Increasingly higher demand for hydrogen