In this lesson, we will focus on the drivers for change in regard to electricity. What is moving us from fossil fuels to renewables? How does this shift impact reliability, accessibility, security, and sustainability? Conversely, how do these four factors drive the transition? In the previous lessons, we explore the outlooks that illustrate projected trends in supply and demand. These outlooks illustrate these trends, and, to an extent, offer some explanations. In this lesson we will step back and take a look at the high-level drivers of the trends these outlooks tell in regard to the transition from fossil fuels to renewables. In the next lesson, we will explore trends in energy efficiency and other ways to deliver electricity more effectively to users, regardless of how it is generated.

Learning Outcomes

By the end of this lesson, you should be able to:

• Recognize the drivers and trends involved in moving from fossil fuels to renewables
• Relate these trends to energy sustainability, reliability, accessibility, and security
• Describe how these drivers and trends support the SDG #7 targets

Lesson Roadmap

Questions?

If you have questions, please feel free to post them to the Questions about EGEE 401 Discussion forum in Canvas. While you are there, feel free to post your own responses if you, too, are able to help a classmate.

Throughout history, our society has seen periodic shifts in how we acquire energy. In some cases, it was done by introducing new technologies such as steam power engines or widely available electricity. In other cases, ironically, it was applying old approaches in more advanced ways such as solar energy heating or windmills. Note that prior to the heyday of the use of electricity, energy necessary to do work was obtained from sources we now consider renewables. These include wind, solar, and hydropower. Even fossil fuels date to the early days of organized society. Cultures used seeping crude oil, peat bogs, and coal to burn for light, heat, and cooking. Windmills dotted the Dutch landscape, and water wheels were common in early America. In the pre-electricity era, wind and hydropower were used more for mechanical purposes such as pumping water or spinning mills. Solar was used mainly for heating and cooking.

Landscape Photography of Factory

Credit: power-plant-industry-chimney by Benita5 from Pixabay is licensed under the Simplified Pixabay License

Electricity generation found a new application for fossil fuels, hydropower, and wind. The ability to generate electricity using some form of energy to spin turbines which generated current transformed the energy landscape. Burning fossil fuels generated steam to turn turbines. Even with the advent of renewable sources, including nuclear, the primary purposes are for generating electricity. Hydropower and wind energy now spin turbines, and solar can either heat water into steam or generate electricity directly via photovoltaics.

We learned from the outlooks that there is information available predicting how this transition will play out. One may think that, with all of the thinking that goes into an outlook, they would be rather accurate and reliable. That is relatively true until there is a “Black Swan Event.” In general, this is an expression for an event that occurs rarely and randomly but has severe consequences. Some definitions go on to say it is also something that, in retrospect, should have been foreseen. The Covid-19 pandemic is such an eventand perhaps even the war in Ukraine.

The 2024 edition of the IEA World Energy Outlook has this highlight statement:

"Escalating conflict in the Middle East and Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine underscore the continued energy security risks that the world faces. Some of the immediate effects of the global energy crisis had started to recede in 2023, but the risk of further disruptions is now very high. The experience of the last few years shows how quickly dependencies can turn into vulnerabilities; a lesson that applies also to clean energy supply chains that have high levels of market concentration. Markets for traditional fuels and for clean technologies are becoming more fragmented: since 2020, almost 200 trade measures affecting clean energy technologies – most of them restrictive – have been introduced around the world, compared with 40 in the preceding five-year period...Fragility in today’s energy markets is a reminder of the abiding importance of energy security."

Coupled with the the transition in the U.S. to a new presidential administration and energy stance, the long-term impacts to the prospects for rapid clean energy transitions remains unclear. It is too soon to say whether today’s crises represent a major setback for efforts to bring about a more secure and sustainable energy system, or a catalyst that accelerates the pace of change. The war in Ukraine and destabilization in the Middle East continue to unfold; many uncertainties remain, and crucial energy policy decisions have yet to be made.

World Energy Outlook 2024

Let us explore general drivers to shift from fossil fuel to renewables, and some related disadvantages regarding energy security, reliability, accessibility, and sustainability. These are only high-level thoughts; in this lesson, you will be exploring more about these aspects. It is clear that the primary driver to go from fossil fuel to renewables for electricity generation has been sustainability- specifically the goal to reduce carbon emissions.

Windmills on Shore

Credit: Afterglow-alternative-energy-clouds-dawn by Wind Turbine Landscape Photography from Pexels is licensed under CC0

Reliability:

As we will explore more deeply in future lessons, the concept of reliability is “being able to depend on” getting the energy you need when you want it. The expectations for this vary around the world. For example, in the developed nations, especially the USA, reliability means having energy “24/7/365.” Any interruption is considered unacceptable, at a minimum for comfort and lifestyle, but, in cases of emergency services, for example, it can mean the difference between life and death. Being able to ensure reliable energy and having a plan to contend with lapses in reliability is often referred to as energy resilience.

We know, however, that there is a difference between the amount of energy required to keep society functioning and the amount of energy desired for discretionary activities. For example, powering a hospital is much more critical than lighting a stadium for a sports event. This necessary minimum amount of reliable energy is called the “baseload” and we will learn more about it in a later lesson. Historically, fossil fuel or nuclear plants provided most of the baseload, with hydropower becoming a key component more recently. Renewables are becoming greater contributors to baseload production but, to-date, they are not reliable enough to supply the baseload without additional generation methods.

Accessibility:

Recall this means being able to get energy to your point of use. Having a reliable energy grid is not of much comfort to a person who cannot access it. In developed countries, especially the USA, accessibility is an issue in very remote areas. Even the most impoverished areas in the USA have access to the grid. However, it is important to note that affordability is a subset of accessibility. If you cannot afford to pay for energy, then it is not accessible to you, even if your home is connected to the grid. Interestingly, renewables have a history of providing energy in cases where grid access or affordability has been an issue. These are examples of onsite solar or wind to generate some power over the short term if grid access is disrupted. We are also now seeing movement toward using renewables to satisfy a portion of energy demand to improve affordability. This will become more widespread as the cost differential between renewables and non-renewables equalizes.

Security:

Here again, distributed energy and renewables, which are more adaptable to site-based production, are becoming desirable over a traditional nationwide grid. We have seen from blackouts over history that disruptions to the grid propagate quickly throughout the system and in a very short time can plunge major areas of the country into darkness. I had the rather unfortunate experience of living in New York City during the 1963 and 1977 blackouts. Both were caused by a very localized problem that quickly spread due to the cascading nature of the grid trying to make up loss of supply. A relatively new concern is the potential for intentional disruption, such as terroristic acts.

Sustainability:

Probably the newest of the four attributes, sustainability drivers for energy have been the underpinning of the rapid expansion of renewable energy across the world. Here we see the greatest of the conflicts- while renewables tend to be the most “sustainable” in terms of environmental impact, they have struggled to become affordable compared to fossil fuels. More importantly, renewables alone cannot yet meet the demand, especially baseload. Until that is possible, through improved capacity to store energy combined with more built capacity, it is unrealistic to expect the energy supply to be 100% renewable in the near future. Renewable energy, such as wind and solar, by virtue of its characteristics, is practical for distributed energy- that is energy produced locally for a limited area, rather than drawing from a regional or national grid, although renewable energy does feed the grid.

In other classes, you have learned the basics of energy, including types of energy created. You have also learned the basics of the various renewable energy sources. A very interesting effort is called Project Drawdown. The overall intent is to provide insight and perspective on possible solutions to reduce emissions and mitigate climate change. Climate change is the subject of a future lesson, but the project does have some excellent insights on a number of solutions. We will be referring to this work frequently in this class. For this assignment we will focus on the section that talks about solutions for electricity generation in the context of transitioning from fossil fuel to renewables.

Purpose:

This assignment will help you practice looking at specific solutions in the context of the broader energy picture and how solutions need to be reconciled with energy-related needs.

Critical Thinking and Analysis:

This assignment will help you practice reviewing solutions and innovations in the context of accessibility, reliability, security, and sustainability.

Successful Completion:

This assignment has two parts to complete.

Part one:

Review the Drawdown website, specifically the section on electricity. It covers both energy sources and solutions for efficiency and distribution. You should pay close attention to unique applications of wind and solar such as micro-wind and concentrated solar and different ways to generate energy from fossil fuels, such as cogeneration. You will note that the idea of Drawdown is to propose proven solutions to address energy challenges. These examples include a wide range of solutions but intend to demonstrate that practical solutions do exist.

Part two:

In 225 words (plus or minus 10%), write an essay which discusses climate change driven solutions and their potential impact. Begin by choosing one of the examples listed below and explain how it addresses one of the four attributes (accessibility, reliability, sustainability or security).

Review the entries for:

• Geothermal Power
• Utility Scale Photovoltaics
• Rooftop Solar
• Concentrated Solar
• Biomass Power
• Nuclear Power
• District Heating
• Micro Wind
• Methane Digesters
• Landfill Methane Capture
• Waste to Energy
• Distributed Solar Voltaics
• Ocean Power
• Wind Turbines- Onshore and Offshore
• Small Hydro
• Solar Hot Water

*You might also be interested in reviewing the introduction material on the homepage to learn more about the project.