3.4 Current and Future Energy Sources of the World

The figure below shows the per capita energy consumption for each country. The energy sources are also split out by source, so you can see where each country gets their energy. The US consumes the most energy per person. Interact with the graph and answer the following questions.

• What country is #2 energy consumer per capita?
• What is the average energy consumption per capita for the average citizen of the world?
• What source of energy is the highest for a citizen of China?
• In 1965, which country was the second largest energy consumer in the world?

The figure below shows the Global Primary energy consumption by source. This shows how the world wide energy sources have changed over time. As you explore the data, answer the following questions.

• What was the primary world-wide energy source prior to 1860s?
• What is the primary world-wide energy source today?
• In what year do you see Nuclear become an energy source?
• What renewable energy source is the largest percentage of world-wide energy?

Energy Consumption and Electricity Projections

According to the International Energy Outlook (2023), global electricity generation will increase through 2025, however most of generation will be produced from renewable (zero-carbon) technologies. It is important to note that Net-Zero Carbon technologies are renewables, however, it can include nuclear power. Nuclear power plants do not emit any carbon emissions, so the figures below include nuclear as well as renewables. There has been increased discussion about nuclear power in recent years, including Small Modular Reactors (SMR), so it is possible to see a resurgence of nuclear power in the next 10-20 years.

In the IEA 2023 report, the combined share of fossil fuels (coal, petroleum and natural gas) is expected to decrease. They also predict that electric vehicles are expected to account for 29%-54% of all new vehicles sales by 2050. China and Western Europe are leading the switch to Electric Vehicles.

You can see in the figures below that the EIA predicts that world-wide electricity generation is expected to increase anywhere between 30-76% through 2050. The gray shaded area on the charts represents the level of uncertainty in development depending on a number of policy and economic factors. Renewables and nuclear are expected to produce most of the world’s electricity needs through 2050.

Text description of the World Electricity Generation by Fuel Type image.

The image displays six line graphs representing global electricity generation projections by fuel type, measured in billion kilowatthours, from 2020 to 2050. The graphs include total electricity generation, coal, solar, natural gas, wind, and nuclear. Each graph features a black line depicting the reference scenario and a shaded area indicating projection uncertainty. The total electricity generation graph shows a steady increase. Coal remains relatively stable, while solar shows substantial growth. Natural gas and nuclear exhibit slight increases, and wind shows moderate growth. The top right corner features the EIA logo.

Credit: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2023

The figure below shows the expected electricity generation through 2050 from different areas of the world. China is expected to grow in all electricity generation, including fossil fuels, however their zero-carbon technologies are expected to account for most of their electricity generation through 2050. They are projected to have rapid growth in renewables through 2030 and start to level off as we get closer to 2050. Western Europe is expected to see nearly all of their increase in electricity generation to come from zero-carbon sources, while fossil fuel generation is decreasing. India shows a dramatic increase in electricity production from net zero-carbon sources, while fossil fuels remain plateaued through 2050. Africa shows an increase in electricity generation from all sources through 2050.

Text description of the electricity-generating capacity image.

The image is a multi-panel chart depicting projected electricity-generating capacity for zero-carbon and fossil fuel-based technologies across four different regions: China, Western Europe, India, and Africa, from 2020 to 2050. Each panel contains line graphs representing both types of technologies with area shading to show range variations.

1. China - The graph shows a significant increase in zero-carbon technologies, represented by a blue line and shaded area expanding upwards from 2020 to 2050. The fossil fuel-based technologies, shown in black, remain relatively stable.
2. Western Europe - The graph shows a moderate rise in zero-carbon technologies, with fossil fuel-based ones remaining relatively constant, similar to China's panel.
3. India - The blue line for zero-carbon technologies shows strong growth, indicating a rising trend. Fossil fuel-based technologies shown in black remain mostly flat.
4. Africa - Both zero-carbon technologies and fossil fuel-based technologies are projected to rise, but zero-carbon technologies are expected to increase at a faster rate.

Credit: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2023

Future energy use:

While no one has a crystal ball to predict where our future energy use may come from, estimates from both the EIA and IEA expect energy use to grow in the future. Most of this new electricity/energy production is expected to come from renewable or net-carbon zero sources.