Many different indices have been developed over the past several decades to indicate the occurrence and severity of drought. The simplest index relates precipitation amounts during a specific period of time to the historical average during that same time period. For example, precipitation for the month of June 2014 was 15% below the historical average for Wenatchee, Washington. While this statement conveys some useful information, it is not possible to determine whether or not that 15% deficit qualifies for any of the definitions of drought. The number of days with no precipitation is another simple index, but again must be considered in the context of historical data or water demand, and there is no standard definition for what number of days without precipitation would necessarily qualify under any of the four types of drought. Also, if an area receives a very small amount of precipitation (< 0.1 cm) during an otherwise unusually dry time period, a strict interpretation of this index would ‘reset the clock’, but in reality, the severity of the water deficit remains essentially unchanged. Complex phenomena, such as drought, require somewhat complex metrics to be measured in a meaningful way.

The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a slightly more complex measure of precipitation deficit that compares measured precipitation to the median historical precipitation over multiple timescales, ranging from one month to 24 months. As dry or wet conditions become more severe, SPI becomes more negative or positive, respectively. Several different indices of varying complexity have been developed to assess drought based on both water supply and demand using multiple environmental criteria. The most common index used to define and monitor drought is the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), which attempts to measure the duration and intensity of long-term, spatially extensive drought, based on precipitation, temperature, and available water content data. PDSI ranges from values exceeding 4.0, which are considered extremely wet, to values below -4.0, which are considered extreme drought (see Figure 12). Weekly maps of PDSI for the entire US (current and historical) can be viewed on the web page maintained by the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center.

Figure 12. Palmer Drought Severity Index map of the conterminous US, segmented by climate divisions. This example is drawn from the week ending June 8, 2024.

Source: Climate Prediction Center, NOAA

Related indices are the Palmer Z Index, which attempts to measure short-term drought on a monthly timescale, the Palmer Crop Moisture Index, which attempts to measure short-term drought and quantify impacts on agricultural productivity, the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index, which attempts to estimate the long-term effects of drought on reservoir levels and groundwater levels. An immense compilation of current and historical drought information for the entire US is freely available on the US Drought Monitor web page, maintained by the University of Nebraska National Drought Mitigation Center.

Increasingly, government and industry groups are using ‘cloud seeding’ techniques to induce precipitation and reduce the severity of a drought. One of the potentially limiting steps in the formation of precipitation is the presence of tiny particles (nuclei) on which water can condense and coalesce to form raindrops or ice crystals large enough to begin falling through the air. Cloud seeding is the practice of injecting nucleating agents, such as silver iodide (AgI), into clouds in an attempt to form precipitation. The effectiveness of these approaches is questionable, but under the right conditions, cloud seeding may increase the probability of rain and therefore it is practiced in some semi-arid regions, including the western US. However, questions remain regarding environmental and human health impacts as well as concerns regarding ‘stealing’ atmospheric moisture from would-be recipients downwind.

How do floods and droughts impact ecosystems?

Variation in river flow (i.e., the river flow regime – see Module 3) exerts a strong influence on river and riparian ecosystem function. In particular, floods and droughts control the creation and maintenance of river and floodplain habitats and the sustainability of the high biodiversity observed along river systems. The temporal pattern of floods interacts with channel and floodplain topography to create a highly heterogeneous landscape of depressions, oxbows, gravel bars, and terraces (Figure 13). The hydro-geomorphic diversity means that the inundation frequency varies strongly over short distances on river floodplains, and creates habitats for a diverse suite of organisms adapted to a wide range of flooding frequencies.

Figure 14. The Tagliamento River and floodplain in northeastern Italy. Note the diverse array of hydrogeomorphic surfaces, including vegetated islands, gravel bars, off-channel pools and non-flowing channels. The different surfaces will become inundated at different magnitude floods and thus will be flooded at different frequencies over time. The diverse array of flooding frequencies provides habitat for a diverse group of aquatic and riparian organisms.

Source: Brian Laub, aerial imagery from Esri

Both riparian and aquatic organisms have adapted to take advantage of flood-drought cycles in river ecosystems. For example, many fish species time spawning runs to coincide with predictable floods, because this allows large adult fish to access small streams that provide optimal habitat for egg development and growth and survival of young fish. In the Amazon River, many fish species can almost be considered forest-dwelling fish, because they feed directly on leaves, fruits, seeds, and insects that fall into the river when it floods surrounding forests during the annual rainy season. Trees of these seasonally flooded forests have in turn developed fruits and seeds that mature during the flooding season and that can survive fish digestive systems in order to take advantage of the seed dispersal ability of mobile fish species. In the western U.S., cottonwood trees time the release of seeds to coincide with the recession of flood peaks in order to access fresh sediment deposits with elevated water tables that provide ideal habitats for germination.

It may be less obvious that droughts could be beneficial for aquatic and riparian biota, but when coupled with periodic flooding, droughts play an important role in the survival of many river organisms. During droughts, resources such as organic material and nutrients can accumulate on floodplain surfaces, and when a flood does occur, there is a pulse of greater resource availability than would occur under regular flooding, and this period of high resource availability can ensure the quick growth and survival of organisms, including young fish. In addition, periodic drying of rivers and floodplain wetlands eliminates competitors and predators for organisms that can quickly colonize areas when water returns. Such areas of refuge from predators are critical for the persistence of many aquatic organisms and would not exist without periods of drought.

The importance of floods and droughts to the integrity of river-floodplain ecosystems is apparent when alterations to the natural flow regime occur. Riverine organisms are often closely adapted to the local magnitude, frequency, duration, and predictability of extreme events, such that alteration of any one component can threaten species persistence. For example, recruitment of cottonwood trees along many dammed rivers in the western U.S. has essentially ceased, because the dams prevent flooding and creation of germination sites during the spring when cottonwood trees release their seeds. Excessive drought is also highly detrimental to river systems. One of the most famous examples of drought impacts is seen in the Colorado River delta in Mexico, which was once a highly productive floodplain forest and swamp, but due to prolonged drought conditions in the river basin and water infrastructure development, is now a dry desert.